EUR/USD Daily Chart

Updated Currency Overview

USD

Economic stimulus and bank bailout plans in place in the U.S. Could bring some clarity to the markets and provide a psychological boost.
USD closely linked to stocks (risk aversion play).
Fed has been very aggressive in attacking U.S. problems.
U.S. economy continues weak. Expect a lead time between stimulus and an economic impact.
USD tone mixed, future performance depends on patience of dealers.

EUR

ECB policy behind the curve. ECB has lost a stellar reputation.
One concern is the lack in the E-Z of a common fiscal policy lever.
Monetary policy has room for ease. ECB focused on Germany to detriment of others?
Economic weakness in Spain, Ireland & Italy a worry without currency devaluation option.
EUR vulnerable until deleverging ends.

GBP

U.K. economy in a bad state. As in the U.S., financial sector hard hit.
Bank of England aggressively easing. Close to a Quantitative Easing (QE) policy.
GBP fundamentally vulnerable vs. the EUR.

CHF

Swiss economy slowing. Inflation well below target.
Swiss National Bank for all practical purposes has cut rates to zero.
SNB has threatened intervention (selling CHF) vs. the EUR.
CHF should trade weaker vs. the EUR.

One-Year EUR/USD Daily Chart